Sunday, December 23, 2007

Review of My 2007 Security Predictions: Too Wimpy

It is time to check how my last year's predictions (My Security Predictions for 2007 ... Go!) fared. I am shocked that many of my colleagues looooove to predict, but seem to shy away from reviewing them in the end of the year (big ego - small 'you know whats'? :-))

So, one liner summary of status of my 2007 predictions: they were too wimpy. In more detail ...

PI. Platforms: Vista will have no impact on the overall risk level of most organizations out there. Yes, some holes will certainly be plugged (and I even agree that "Vista is the most secure version ever", just like every single one of its predecessors was - in its time), but others - possibly of types we don't even know about - will crop up. Sorry, but secure platform =/= secure Internet (kinda like you wearing a Kevlar vest doesn't lower crime in the neighborhood).

Status Check 1:  This is correct, for sure. In fact, Windows Vista made no impact on security not because it has security flaws (and it does), but because nobody really adopted it. Calls to "upgrade Vista to XP" are heard loud and clear ...

PII. New technologies: no credible technology that can alone "solve" the problem of insider threat will emerge (many will try); the insider threat problem is just too broad, diverse and rich to be solved by a single technology or even a single vendor (corollary: if somebody is trying to sell you such a technology that claims to do exactly that on its own, then - well, you know what to do ...)

Status Check II: This one was kind of a no-brainer and way too safe a prediction. Of course, it didn't emerge! It is impossible to have one technology (or even: only technology) to stop a dedicated insider. However, log management helps since it allows you to know what they actually did and how they stole all your secrets :-( with painful level of details (if you have logging enabled, that is)

PIII. Security market: we will see more than a few firesales and possibly total and miserable security vendor failures (wonna bet which legacy SIEM vendor will die first? :-)) There are way too many companies who sell some random and often irrelevant "protection" which sometimes doesn't even work ... at their own demo ... when their CTO demos it ... the third time ...

Status Check III: This is kinda true (here, here, here), but not to the extent I suspected. Some of the walking dead are still, well, walking. And no less dead :-( In 2008?

PIV. Risk management: a confusion about what is "risk management" will not subside this year. Business risk? Information risk? Risk as threat x vulnerability x asset? Risk as probability of loss? Arrrghh! - It goes on and on and on. No standard accepted definition of risk management in the field of infosec will emerge.

Status Check IV: This is also a wimpy prediction, since it is so obviously true. The concept of risk is still a mystery to many in security (e.g  see this survey) and it will likely remain so for a while. Puleeease! :-)

PV. NAC: of course, no list of 2007 prediction is valid without mentioning knack :-) And you know what? NAC will shrink, NOT grow in importance this year! This is where the rubber meets the road and fish start to swim upstream :-) - this prediction started from me reading Richard's piece "NAC is Fighting the Last War" which struck me like a Strength 15 Lighting Bolt. Indeed, narrowly defined NAC largely targets worm infections (and will thus lose relevance) while broadly defined NAC starts to sound like having a well-run network (which is as relevant today as it was in 1992 and probably 2012 as well). The Planet NAC is about to experience a premature eclipse :-)

Status Check V:  Yes, bingo!!! I am proud of this one, since it was pretty contrarian: NAC didn't become much clear and adoption reportedly slowed down. Small vendors scatter, larger ones repurposed NAC tools.  NAC - in whatever shape or form - will become more common, but only after it sinks into the "trough of disillusionment", pardon my Gartnerese :-)

PVI. 0-days: 2006 was the year when this previously obscure term fell victim to malignant marketeers. 2007 will see more of the same, no doubt. But what about the real 0-day-wielding attackers, poking jokes at the above "oh-day defenders"? Security research into new types of vulnerabilities will certainly continue and more types of previously "safe" (rather, "erroneously thought of as safe") types of content will be used to attack applications. MPG with 0day? AVI with 0day? And, our old friends doc, xls, ppt and now PDF. On the other hand, a major 0-day worm still won't happen.

Status Check VI: Correct, but then again - it was a little on the soft side as well. No 0-days worms. PDF hacking - check. And, in fact, less noise about "we protect against 0-days" (because they likely don't). However, I should have added that technologies that only protect against a few known "baddies" will experience reduction of efficiency ...

PVII. IP and ID theft, data loss: at the risk of sounding hilariously obvious, I would state that such incidents of ID theft (phishing, etc), broader intellectual property (IP) theft and loss will continue largely unabated. Will we, the security community, try to stop it? Of course, but nowhere near hard enough ...

Status Check VII: This has definitely gotten worse, as predicted. TJX? VA? UK events? Many others? And yes, it was hilariously obvious to say this :-)

PVIII. Compliance: but of course! Did you think I'd miss this bad boy? Mandatory regulatory initiatives that pack a bite or a punch, such as PCI, will continue to spread and thus grow in importance, while jokes like HIPAA will continue to languish, helping my # VII prediction come true with a bang ... At the same time, I am undecided on the voluntary frameworks that you can choose to comply with (ISO17799/270001, COBIT, ITIL, etc) - will they take off like a rocketship or remain steadily interesting to some? Only time will tell.

Status Check VIII: PCI DSS continued to rage (despite TJX and other faux pas :-)), even some retailer backlash was seen. On the voluntary side, some say ITIL is emerging, other swear by ISO27xx1 series, but I still don't see the rush to adopt the frameworks en masse, at least not in the US.

PIX. Security awareness: well, security awareness will ... ah, come on, just laugh: bua-ha-ha-ha-haaa :-)

Status Check IX:  No comment! Actually one: malware zipped with a password which requires the user to enter it and unzip it. Stuuuuuuuuupid! And, do remember the "WSJ saga" , which probably blew away years worth of your awareness efforts ...

PX. Finally, I would like to reiterate a few of the last year's predictions that will still ring true this year. Client-side and application-level (especially, web application) vulnerabilities will still be outrunning the server-side and platform-level ones. Major wireless attacks and malware will still not destroy the world.

Status Check X: Yes, client-sides beat server-side vulnerabilities. Yes, app vulns beat platform vulns. Come on, what else is new? :-)

Stand by for my 2008 predictions! All Hail Futurism! :-)

All past predictions from various people and groups for 2007 that I've seen are tagged here. A fun read now!

All future predictions from various people and groups predictions for 2008 that I've seen are tagged here. A fun read a year from now? :-)

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Dr Anton Chuvakin