On "The Next 100 Years"

As I said in my Twitter post about reading "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century" by Stratfor's George Friedman: "the book is unbelievably, shockingly awesome! It exudes pure awesomeness from every page!"

As you know, I was a long-term Stratfor fan (I was reading the site since they launched in 1994 or so), but lately I have evolved into a Stratfor addict. And the book ("The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century") didn't make my condition better, quite the opposite.

The basic premise of this treatise is this: the coming century will be ruled by an empire, so powerful economically, politically and militarily that nobody will be able to dislodge it from a top spot, even though some will try, much to their despair.

What is this empire? "A rising China"? Pah. "A resurent Russia"? Nah. "A united Europe." Hah. Its name is The United States of America. The book states simply: "The 21st century will be the American century" and "The United States is only at the beginning of its power."

Yes, indeed! Stratfor founder George Friedman predicts that the US power is barely at its dawn, unlike some silly writers. His geopolitical analysis predicts that US will remain the leading world power for at least a century. He goes thru the events of 2020s (a new mini-cold war, then collapse of Russia), 2030s (a new crisis in the US) and then predicts a bit of a global war in 2050s. I will not post any more spoilers, go read the book; a few more juicy bits from the book follow below.

Some of the weapons to be used in mid-21st century wars:

• Hypersonic UAVs armed with missiles
  
• Space command stations and direct space-to-ground weapons
  
• "Armored infrantrymen" in electrically-powered suits
• Various types of robotic armored vehicles.
  

Below are some of my favorite quotes:

• "Where humanity goes - war follows" (on war)
• "The European Age has ended and the North American Age has begun" (on Europe)
  
• "The United States has a huge margin of error. [...] The US therefore tends to be careless in how it execrises its power globally." (on some current events)
• "The combined naval force of the rest of the world doesn't come close to equaling that of the US Navy" (on Navy)
• "Mankind does not pose problems for itself for which it does not already have a solution" (on global warning; BTW, he is quoting Karl Marx here)

Should I mention it again? This is one of the best books I've read for a good number of years...

A Few Fun Bits, While I Am Preparing for My Speech at SANS

A few more things, that qualify as fun reads, with - hopefully just as fun! - comments.

• Love, love, love this piece :-) Remember the "robotic gun rampage" stories from last year? How does this sound: "The gun can track 360 degress, but there is a software-driven safety zone that makes sure rounds don't blow the rotors off. If the Osprey has to maneuver away from the target and the crew chief can't hold the gun on the bad guys manually, the system slaves the gun to the point of the last shot, slewing it as the plane moves." (watch the fun video there too)
  
• "Security idiot" meme lives on - go here. BTW, the post is a follow-up to this
• A fun follow-up to my post on compliance approaches titled Is PCI DSS "Too Prescriptive"?
• Finally, my fave post: "Increase Your Logging." I am sooooo happy that logging evangelism is spreading far and wide! A quote from the paper: ”Logs are interesting, logs are fun, logs should be done by EVERYONE…..get to logging!!!” (I promise that specific case was not my quote, even though I do say that very thing all the time!)
  

Enjoy! Time for me to run and do my preso ... about logs of course!

On Stratfor

I love Stratfor. I am addicted. They have a unique way of saying things, an elegant mix of insight, cynicism and humor. How about this one, for instance:

"But in Georgia’s twilight hour, Stratfor’s gaze is not particularly riveted on Tbilisi. Georgia’s fate is more or less sealed. At dawn either the bombs will fall and the tanks will advance and depose the Georgian government by force, or a siege will begin that will depose it in time. Either way, the government of what is currently known as Georgia will evolve into a form that slavishly respects Russian wishes. The only reason Russian officials have not said they will enforce “regime change” is because they feel the term is too American. Whatever the nomenclature, the details of how this change happens pale in comparison to what such a change represents."

On TV Warfare

It is simply amazing that all the countries now "get it" that war happens primarily on TV (this vs this; many other examples are around). It is also amazing that there is NO way to know where "media reporting" ends and "psyops" begin. So, a burning tank with no clear markings that you see on TV might be:

1. Tank belonging to warring side A
2. Tank belonging to warring side B
3. Just a tank that was passing by and got hit by mistake :-)
4. Something that looks like a burning tank
5. An archive shot that reporter added for visual impact

Same applies to the "primary weapon" of a modern TV war: "evidence of atrocities of the opposing side."

What's the truth? Who knows... progress brought us "TV wars," is this the first "YouTube war"? But if we cannot believe the media coverage, how can we believe a random video online? Well ... maybe the same way we often believe Wikipedia over Britannica.

In any case, if there was a better time to turn off the TV (and tune off the web news...), it would be now. Also, time to get the dust off my copy of Toffler?

Rant mode off :-)

UPDATE: fun article on that very subject (media vs psyops) - "Debating Domestic Proganda: Part I"

UPDATE: "A column of Russian military vehicles, including tanks and armored vehicles, was reported to be moving toward Tbilisi with a journalist from U.S. media giant CNN riding along and reporting live for U.S. television. [...] The fact that Russia now has U.S. journalists embedded with its military to report every move being made is key. " (source)

How Do You Know It's The 21st Century?

That's how - you read the directions for use on the newest multi barrel 40mm automatic cannon and it says "requires only DC power and an ethernet connection for operations."

Full story here.

More On Non-lethal Weapons: Electrified Shieds

Two quotes are enough, really:

"The kit "features a peel and stick perforated [f]ilm, power supply and necessary conversion equipment. This laminate becomes electrified providing a powerful deterrent to protect officers and keep suspects or rioters at bay." What could possibly go wrong?"

Love that last sentense...

and

"It's all part of the Office of Law Enforcement Technology Commercialization's Mock Prison Riot"

Wow, a prison riot, what a fun event! ;-)

Read here.

Wow! Stratfor on Cyberwar

Wow! Stratfor publishes this piece which starts with "This is the first in a series of analyses on the emergence of cyberspace as battlespace" and then they even go as far as "in addition to being a revolutionary medium of communication, the Internet also offers a devastating means of waging war."

Fun!

Campaign to Ban Sharks with Lasers!

"Charities and academics are calling for autonomous killer robots to be banned -- even though they don't exist. What other sci-fi weapons should be proactively eliminated? Vote, or submit your own."

What If It Happened in 1979?

Now, I like to label all sorts of things as "fun read," but there is a limit. I was about to say "hey, fun read!" but then thought better of it. So read "Timeline 9: "The Big D" - what if "the mid-east war escalated and the tensions between the superpowers grew. March 17, 1979 nuclear war broke out: Egyptian missiles with Soviet warheads struck against Israel ..." (read it) This is indeed one of the most detailed and enlightening "alternative future" scenarios that I've seen.

Fun Info on Pain Rays

Representative quote: "The femtosecond laser they used is not quite capable of causing agony at the receiving end." :-)

Morbid is Cool?

I just loved the quote from this which covers a request to provide a high-powered laser weapon to target insurgents from a distance: "A precision engagement of a PID insurgent by a DEW [A.C. - stands for Directed Energy Weapon] will be a highly surgical and impressively violent event. Target effects will include instantaneous burst-combustion of insurgent clothing, a rapid death through violent trauma, and more probably a morbid combination of both."

Also read the comments below - many are fun.

Dedicated to all people with a sick sense of humor :-)

On Satellite Warfare

Wow, this is pretty amazing: "... This month's Discover looks at "eight ways to kill a satellite" -- from space nukes to hack attacks -- and ranks "the threat level of each." The magazine declares "an interceptor launched from Earth, guided to its target by a ground-based laser or radar system" to be 'the gravest threat.'"

.. which is what most people would think. However, the journalist writing the blurb disagrees: "Most of the smart folks I've talked to about this think satellites' biggest vulnerability comes from the orbiters' "need for constant housekeeping from the ground," as MSNBC puts it. Those orders from back here on Earth are eminently spoofable."

So, is it the 21st century or what? :-) Hacking things is now easier than blowing them up...?

More On Armed Robots

Kewl quote from this: " We now know that there are robotic cars smart enough to drive themselves around a city. The next step: give those vehicles automatic weapons, of course. "

Of course! :-)

Fun Read: "The Most Important Future Military Technologies"

Fun read, for sure - "The Most Important Future Military Technologies"

Of course, neuroscience and psychobiology are well-represented (also see this)

Fun Reading on WW III

Well, the title of this blog post does sound kinda obscene :-) but WTH ... It covers one possible scenario for Middle East development. The original source, whose credibility is, as usual, heavily questioned, is here, but read the DefenseTech piece first (and the comments!)

Mind Blast from the Past: Psi-Weapons Again...

Near-future energy weapons? Airborn lasers? Microwave pain beams? Sonic weapons? Directed plasma fields?

Bua-ha-ha-haaaa, mere kindergarten toys! :-) Direct control of the mind beats them all to squeaking pulp (if it works...) This story about a new DHS contract bring back the old specter of Russian psi-weaponry from the forgotten early-90s lore (e.g. see here). Now their research center even has an English website (here), check it out.

Fun (Probably Humorous) Piece on Future Warfare

When I saw a link to this at DefenseTech and started reading, I kinda took it seriously. However, as I read about half of it, I realized that it is clearly TheOnion-style spoof piece (after all, it is 2017 and Chelsea Clinton is the president :-)). Check it out and decide yourself ...

Fun Stuff From Stratfor

An interesting Stratfor piece on Iraq Endgame is republished here at Military.com. Also, some discussion that followed.

Useful for those who don't subscribe to Stratfor (you should!)

UPDATE: why read stuff like this? What's the relevance for security? This pretty much says what I would have written myself :-) - key quote: "Financial Cryptographers [blog] are interested in war because it is one of the few sectors where we face an aggressive attacker (as opposed to a statistical failure model)"

On Plasma Shields

The bizarre part is that this stuff was all over Russian (then Soviet) tech hobbyist magazines back in the 80s ... All this "controlled plasmoid" stuff isn't new at all, even though some say it never quite worked right, if at all.

UPDATE: the patent does seem to give some credit to works of some Mr Leonov, which seems to be related to reducing air friction using artificially generated plasma cloud around the plane.

Dedicated to Conspiracy Buffs Everywhere ...

The FBI Can’t Link Bin Laden to 9/11? Why Is This Not News? This does seem to confirm it, kind of.