So, this anti-virus efficiency/effectiveness saga is kinda closed with this post AND the discussion that followed.
I suspect that the end is peaceful indeed:
= you likely still need AV,
= AV can be bypassed by attackers (and could have been bypassed in the past),
= the chance of such sad event is probably (but not scientifically) higher now than in the past, given proliferation of many types of "commercial" malware.
Did I summarize it right? :-)
And, finally, Kurt has a point here: malware and anti-malware really isn't my top specialty :-(