Wednesday, January 03, 2007

2007 Prediction Criticism

I've been meaning to assault - yes, just for fun - somebody else's 2007 security predictions before releasing my own. And I've been looking for a suitable target for days and - oops! - Richard "Death of the IDS" Stiennon releases his.

Now, I mentioned in the past (just Google) that some people just shouldn't be in the prediction business :-) So, what do we have to tear apart here:

"4. Attacks against DNS are the threat of the year"

He-he, no way. This ain't 1995 anymore. Yes, DNS servers will be hit, but it will certainly not be "a threat of the year."

6. More attacks against wireless networks"

Nope, dramatic increase is not going to happen. There are still enough Windows boxes left to hit before moving on. Then again, a law of small numbers might help and the current low attack count +1 would qualify as "more attacks"...

But - as a disclosure - there is one prediction that is superbly inciting. In fact, I was going to put it in my own prediction set as well (just wait...) Here it is:

"10. Spread of Windows Vista will have zero impact on the overall threatscape"

Right on! It won't have an impact.

Dr Anton Chuvakin