Thursday, April 27, 2006

Risk Exaggeration Summary from Bruce Schneier

Here is a fun and useful one from Bruce Schneier : "five different tendencies people have to exaggerate risks" i.e. "to believe that something is more risky than it actually is. "

  • People exaggerate spectacular but rare risks and downplay common risks.
  • People have trouble estimating risks for anything not exactly like their normal situation.
  • Personified risks are perceived to be greater than anonymous risks.
  • People underestimate risks they willingly take and overestimate risks in situations they can't control.
  • People overestimate risks that are being talked about and remain an object of public scrutiny."

Dr Anton Chuvakin